December 25, 2010

A sobering analysis - the present USA v/s the pre-collapse Soviet Union

An analysis of the current conditions in the United States and the conditions that led up to the collapse of the Soviet Union. From Global Guerrillas:
JOURNAL: Dmitry Orlov on Collapse
Had the opportunity to attend a presentation by Dmitry Orlov (author of the excellent book Reinventing Collapse) last night, with my friend Steve Wardell. Dmitry makes a compelling case that the US empire will suffer the same fate as its most hated rival, the Soviet empire, for many of the same reasons:
Extreme dependence on the price of oil. The Soviet's over reliance on oil was as a source of income (which collapsed in the early 80's due to a confluence of factors, hence the bankruptcy). The US depends on it due our profligacy in its use. As oil availability dries up (export land model, peak oil production, etc.) the US will suffer disproportionately.
Extreme levels of spending on national security. The paranoia that led the Soviets to overspend on national security was legendary. The same is true with the US. The US now spends more than the rest of the world combined on national security. In a hyper competitive global economy it isn't absolute or historical levels of spending that matter - it's relative spending levels.
A runaway foreign trade deficit and ballooning debt.
Extreme levels of corruption and a gross misallocation of economic resources. The Soviets had insular bureaucrats and the US has bankers and financiers.
A ballooning welfare state that it can't support (in the US's case, it's mostly ballooning health care costs -- the US's crony capitalist health care system costs 2-4x per unit of health care as compared to the rest of the developed world, while delivering health stats only rivaled by the developing world).
Some of these are to be taken with a grain of salt -- witness last November, the citizens to watch what the government does and take action at the ballot box while no such option was available to the Russian citizens. Still... Posted by DaveH at December 25, 2010 10:31 AM
Comments
Post a comment









Remember personal info?