Global Climate forecasting
Two interesting stories regarding the deepest-ever ice core recently taken in Antarctica. As the ice forms, gas from the atmosphere is trapped as well as plant and animal life so a very decent record of temperature and atmospheric composition can be had. The deeper the core, the longer back you can study. This one is 1.8 miles deep and covers the last 740,000 years...
From
Reuters:
bq.
Weather Forecast Warm for the Next 15,000 Years
Weather for about the next 15,000 years should be warm and stable -- barring human interference -- according to scientists on Wednesday.
bq. They have drilled three km (1.8 miles) into the Antarctic ice to produce the oldest-ever continuous climate record, from an ice core dating back 740,000 years.
bq. It shows eight ice ages, or glacials, followed by shorter interglacial periods and changing concentrations of gases and particles in the atmosphere.
bq. The period that corresponds most to the present interglacial period, which started 12,000 years ago, was about 400,000 years ago and lasted roughly 28,000 years.
bq. "Our data say we won't go into another ice age. We have 15,000 years before that is coming," Dr Eric Wolff, of the British Antarctic Survey, told a news conference.
From
New Scientist:
bq.
Record ice core gives fair forecast
As long as humans do not mess it up, the Earth's climate is set at fair for the next 15,000 years. That is according to information extracted from the oldest ice core ever drilled.
bq. The Antarctic core is the first to reach as far back as a warm period with characteristics similar to our own interglacial. So it should help make more accurate predictions about when to expect the next deep freeze.
And more:
bq. "All interglacials are slightly different, but we believe Termination V is the most similar to our own," says chief author of the new study, Eric Wolff, at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. It mirrors the pattern of solar warming between seasons and at different latitudes that are caused by fluctuations in the Earth's orbit known as the Milankovitch cycles.
bq. It shows that the Termination V interglacial was unusually long, lasting 28,000 years. The current interglacial is now 12,000 years old, and some scientists feared that we might be heading for an ice age soon since at least one post-Termination V interglacial lasted just 10,000 years.
bq. But the new findings suggest that even without the human hand in global warming, a new ice age would be unlikely for perhaps another 15,000 years, Wolff says.
Posted by DaveH at June 9, 2004 1:33 PM