Elections as Economics
Very good point made over at
Feces Flinging Monkey regarding the Democratic loss, not only of presidency but also seats in the Senate and the House:
bq. Have a look at
this graph at
AlphaPatriot; it shows margins of victory for the every presidential election since 1824. If you look at it overall, it suggests that Bush's recent victory stacks up pretty well. However, if you only look from 1920 onward, Bush's margin was comparatively small. If you take it from 1962 forward (my lifetime) it only looks about average.
bq. No matter how you look at it, this was no landslide; it was only a three percent margin, after all.
bq. But... not only does Bush have the Oval Office, he has the Senate, and House, with even greater margins than before. Politically, it was a massacre.
bq. How does an otherwise unremarkable victory create such carnage?
The Monkey then goes on to compare it to the price of Corn:
bq. Consider the price of corn.
bq. The market for corn is highly optimized and very efficient. If the going rate to the farmer is $100 per ton, he can sell all the corn he has at the going rate... but he'll sell nothing if he asks a penny more. Tiny difference in price, huge change in outcome.
bq. In today's elections, the candidates are so closely matched that small differences in their 'price' yield huge differences in outcome. If you are disliked just a tiny bit more than the other guy, you will not only lose the election, but it might cost you the House and the Senate as well.
And why the choices are usually so close (and why they seem to usually suck):
bq. So why do our choices always suck? Why don't we ever have candidates we really like?
bq.
That's easy. When you appeal to people as a group, and deliver the optimal solution to their group needs, you'll find that most individuals are generally unsatisfied. Get 12 people together and agree on what kind of pizza to get. The optimal choice for the group is almost certainly not what you, as an individual, would prefer. In fact, it's probably just barely good enough.
bq. This is what democracy looks like when it is working perfectly.
An interesting thought -- elections as markets. Makes a lot of sense.
Now, I'm hoping that the Democrats don't lower their prices...
Posted by DaveH at November 6, 2004 9:32 PM