The cost and effect of Kyoto
A short post -- a bit pithy and to the point. A reader of Charles Johnson's
LGF sent an email to a few people with some of his numbers for Kyoto:
There is a lot of hysterical posturing from the "reality-based community," claiming that if the US had signed Kyoto, Hurricane Katrina would not have happened.
But in the real real world, here’s what would have happened if the Kyoto Protocol had gone into effect this year (6 months ago):
1. The increase in CO2 without Kyoto would be about 1 ppm.
2. The US contribution would have been 0.25 ppm.
3. If the US had reduced its emissions immediately on Feb 17 to 7% below 1990 levels, or about 20% below present levels, the CO2 contribution would be reduced by 0.05 ppm.
4. Using an IPCC sensitivity of 3 C for a CO2 doubling, the reduction in temperature would have been 0.00057 C, a ridiculously small number.
5. No measurable effect on weather or hurricanes would have occurred.
6. Following the Kyoto advocates’ wishes, the above course of action would have reduced US GDP by 2 to 4% and would cost about $100B to $200B dollars, compared to Katrina's cost of about $25B.
On a cost/benefit basis, their arguments make no sense.
P.S. You can say these numbers come from a climatologist who was active in the field for more than 30 years.
Can you say clue-bat? This is from someone who has been active in the field for more than 30 years. More specifically, they are not some "young turk" who is trying to make a name for themselves (and get grant monies) with splashy papers parroting the "very very latest" theories.
Been there, done that...
Posted by DaveH at September 1, 2005 11:09 PM