Reporting on Hurricane Felix
Definitely not science -- someone needs to check their facts first.
From
Forbes/AFX:
Second category five hurricane Felix heralds unprecedented season - RMS
Yeah - unprecedented in quietness - the hurricane season lasts from May through November and we haven't had a real hurricane until August -- more than half through the 'season'
Hurricane Felix is the second storm to reach category five status in an unprecedented season in which the first two hurricanes both reached maximum intensity, according to Risk Management Solutions.
'This is only the fourth year since 1950 that we've had more than one category five storm and it is unprecedented for the first two hurricanes of the season to reach this level of intensity,' said Dr Claire Souch, senior director of model management at a US-based risk modelling company.
The hurricane is expected to make landfall in Belize on Wednesday, and is following a southerly path parallel to Hurricane Dean which hit Jamaica and Mexico last week.
What counts is CAT5
at landfall. Looking at that we see only four CAT5 hurricanes to make landfall. Katrina, for all of the damage was CAT3 at landfall.
FL (Keys) -- 1935
CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) -- 1969
ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) -- 1992
San Felipe (PR) -- 1928
Robert Muir Wood, chief research officer at RMS, commented: 'The location of the high pressure system is currently protecting the US, as storm tracks are being kept further south. However, we are not yet halfway through the hurricane season and stable weather tends to break down during September, so there is no guarantee that the protection will remain in place.'
Emphasis mine -- according to the National Hurricane Center, the season lasts from May through November. August is the fourth month of a seven month season. NOAA does consider August to October to be prime months and is
forecasting an above-normal season.
Sure -- two storms that reach CAT5 in rapid order is unusual but consider also that we have had several months of substantially lower than normal activity and the key thing when planning for a Hurricane strike is the strength at landfall, not the maximum strength over the water.
Posted by DaveH at September 3, 2007 3:35 PM