September 20, 2008

Global Cooling - some more data coming in

A couple more sources of data are coming in suggesting that the last 30 years of warming may have been wiped out in the cooling trends of 2007-2008. From Classical Values:
Gains Of 30 Years Wiped Out
It looks like the era of Global Warming is Over. Icecap reports:
Many scary stories have been written about the dangers of catastrophic global warming, allegedly due to increased atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) from the combustion of fossil fuels. But is the world really catastrophically warming? NO. And is the warming primarily caused by humans? NO.

Since just January 2007, the world has cooled so much that ALL the global warming over the past three decades has disappeared! This is confirmed by a plot of actual global average temperatures from the best available source, weather satellite data that shows there has been NO net global warming since the satellites were first launched in 1979.

Since there was global cooling from ~1940 to ~1979, this means there has been no net warming since ~1940, is spite of an ~800% increase in human emissions of carbon dioxide. This indicates that the recent warming trend was natural, and CO2 is an insignificant driver of global warming.

Furthermore, the best fit polynomial shows a strong declining trend. Are we seeing the beginning of a natural cooling cycle? YES. Further cooling, with upward and downward variability, is expected because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has returned to its cool phase, as announced by NASA this year.
This chart makes it pretty plain for all to see:
temperatures_in_decline.jpg
Click for full-size image
There is talk of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation:
La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific
A cool-water anomaly known as La Ni�a occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA�s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Ni�a was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation�a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern�had shifted to its cool phase.
The PDO was discovered while examining Salmon production between Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. It was 'always known' than when fishing was good in AK, it was lousy here and vice versa. Rogue Pundit has some good info on the PDO if you want to learn more. Posted by DaveH at September 20, 2008 10:33 AM
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