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The recession and Beer

An interesting chart -- compare the price of Beer with the GDP adjusted for inflation. From Five Thirty Eight:

BREAKING: Beer No Longer Recession-Proof
The chart that follows details the quarterly change in alcohol purchased for home consumption, adjusted for inflation and dating all the way back to 1959. We can compare this against the quarterly change in real GDP:

As you can see, there has generally not been much of a relationship between alcohol purchases and changes in GDP -- the correlation is essentially zero. Nor have alcohol purchases historically been any kind of lagging or leading indicator.

But something was very, very different in the fourth quarter of 2008. Sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption were down by 9.3 percent from the previous quarter, according to the Commerce Department. This is absolutely unprecedented: the largest previous drop had been just 3.7 percent, between the third and fourth quarters of 1991.

Beer accounts for almost all of the decrease, with revenues off by almost 14 percent. Wine and spirits were much more stable, with sales volumes declining by 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.

We have noticed this very much at the store. Grocery sales have risen (meaning that people aren't driving into town to shop) but luxury items have fallen. Posted by DaveH at February 20, 2009 3:50 PM