July 2, 2009

It's down, it's up - what is happening?

From the Mackinac Center for Public Policy comes this exploration of the water level of the Great Lakes:
Great Lakes Water Levels Are Up: Must be Global Cooling
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports that Great Lakes water levels are up from this time a year ago. Lakes Michigan and Huron are up 12 inches, Lake Superior 2 inches and Lake Erie 5 inches while Lake Ontario is unchanged. Even Lake St. Clair is up 9 inches. Erie and Ontario (and St. Clair) are between 2 and 6 inches above long-term monthly averages for June. Superior, Michigan and Huron are only 6 to 7 inches below long-term averages for June. While this change in the water levels is pronounced, it is not unusual. The Great Lakes have a history of considerable fluctuation in water levels.

During the last 10 years, water levels in the Great Lakes have been below long-term averages. For 30 years prior to that the levels were above average. In fact, historical water level data indicates there is no normal water level for the Great Lakes. A normal water level and an average water level are not the same thing.

The press has been quick to report on lower-than-average Great Lakes levels over the last decade. Many of the articles quote environmental and other groups predicting the dire consequences of global warming's influence. "Warming saps Great Lakes: Water levels could take big drop as Earth gets hotter" is the headline of an article that appeared April 7, 2007, in The Detroit News. In the article, Scudder Mackey of Canada's University of Windsor predicts that in a worst case scenario, Lake St. Clair's shoreline could recede by as much as 3.5 miles. In the same article George Kling, a University of Michigan ecologist, suggests that within 30 years summers in Michigan are likely to feel more like those in Kentucky today and that by the end of the century, summer weather will resemble Arkansas and northern Mississippi.
Take note of the line: "The press has been quick to report on lower-than-average Great Lakes levels over the last decade" Ten years ago was 1999. In 1998, the sun's output started declining. There had been a 30 year upward trend of global temperatures but this stopped in 1998. We had about five years of no increase and then, the last five-six years, the overall temperature has been going down. All the while, the sun is being very very quiet. Temperatures on Mars are down as well as evidenced by the increased extent of the polar ice caps. Who do you believe -- a politician with an agenda to promote or a scientist or professional actively working their field? Posted by DaveH at July 2, 2009 9:09 PM | TrackBack
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