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Well crap - 2010 Hurricane Predictions

I was thinking that I had not seen Dr. Gray's 2010 hurricane predictions. They are available here as a downloadable PDF and the news is not that good:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS*:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20�N, 60-88�W)

1) 53% (average for last century is 42%)

Not horrible but not good either. Joe Bastardi weighs in from Accuweather:

2010 Hurricane Season Will Be More Active, Joe Bastardi Predicts
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released their early hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin for 2010.

The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and therefore a threat to land.

In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms, of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.

A lot of people will cry out that this is proof... PROOF that Global Warming is going to kill us all and we must DO something. The idea that the Earth enjoys a variable climate and has stormy years and not so stormy years is lost on them in their fever dreams. Posted by DaveH at March 20, 2010 8:30 PM