A wager
From
National Review:
Bastardi�s Wager
Joe Bastardi�s great love is atmospheric science. He says he�s been fascinated by it �since I was a baby. My dad�s a meteorologist, his great-grandfather was the town weatherman in Sicily, and my son wants to be a meteorologist.�
And he�s disturbed by how the science, which he values for its own sake, has been infected with politics. According to Bastardi, the intelligentsia see new weather developments as an �incessant stream of confirmations� of global warming: �I just took out the New York Times from ten years ago, saying the reason it�s not snowing is global warming. Now you�ve got guys in the Times saying the reason it�s snowing is global warming.�
But unlike most climate skeptics, Bastardi is in a position to change the conversation. He�s a meteorologist and forecaster with AccuWeather, and he proposes a wager of sorts. �The scientific approach is you see the other argument, you put forward predictions about where things are going to go, and you test them,� he says. �That is what I have done. I have said the earth will cool .1 to .2 Celsius in the next ten years, according to objective satellite data.� Bastardi�s challenge to his critics � who are legion � is to make their own predictions. And then wait. Climate science, he adds, �is just a big weather forecast.�
Heh... The article then goes on to cite six specific reasons why Bastardi thinks that the AGWers are overstating their case. Some compelling facts. The article ends with this quote:
�Let me tell you something. If I�m right, we�re going to need all the energy we can get. It�s a lot harder to heat a house than cool it, a lot easier to take clothes off than to put them on. So when it cools, we�ll need a lot more energy.�
On a side note, NASA's forecast for solar activity for Cycle 24 keeps being revised smaller and smaller and smaller with each passing month.
From
Watts Up With That:
NASA Sun Spot Number predictions revised again
The solar cycle 24 predicted sunspot maximum has been reduced again � predicted peak down to 59 Max. (1/3/11) http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
This will be at the level of the Maunder Minimum of 1675 -1715.
Previous NASA predictions below:
■ 2010 October: Predicted peak 60-70
■ 2009 May 29: predicted peak: 80-90 range
■ 2009 Jan 5: predicted peak: 100-110 range
■ 2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range
Maunder Minimum?
Here
The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle - and coldest part - of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. Whether there is a causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters has not been proven; however, lower earth temperatures have been observed during low sunspot activity. The winter of 1708-09 was extremely cold.
Posted by DaveH at January 19, 2011 3:32 PM