Hindcasting - doesn't work that well
I have said before that the one big problem I have with the current Global Warming 'sophisticated computer models' is that they cannot hindcast.
We have a good 200 years of weather data (entire globe) and feeding this data into the current models produces predictions totally unrelated to our current climate and weather patterns.
If we cannot trust the hindcast, how can we trust the forecast?
This from University of Gothenburg, Sweden -- at
Watts Up With That:
Climate models aren�t good enough to hindcast, says new study
From the University of Gothenburg
Climate models are not good enough
Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years. This is the finding of a doctoral thesis from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
Climate models are the only means to predict future changes in climate and weather.
�It is therefore extremely important that we investigate global climate models� own performances in simulating extremes with respect to observations, in order to improve our opportunities to predict future weather changes,� says Tinghai Ou from the University of Gothenburg�s Department of Earth Sciences.
A bit more:
Tinghai has analysed the model simulated extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years.
�The results show that climate models give a poor reflection of the actual changes in extreme precipitation events that took place in China between 1961 and 2000,� he says. �Only half of the 21 analysed climate models analysed were able to reproduce the changes in some regions of China. Few models can well reproduce the nationwide change.�
China is often affected by extreme climate events. Such as, the flooding of 1998 in southern and north-eastern China caused billions of dollars worth of financial losses, and killed more than 3,000 people. And the drought of 2010-11 in southern China affected 35 million people and also caused billions of dollars worth of financial losses.
China has a problem - extreme weather. It has money and its citizens are not stupid.
If they are unable to come up with a 'sophisticated computer model', why do we give the current crop of AGW warmists such credence for their work especially when said work will not hindcast.
Hide the decline indeed...
Posted by DaveH at March 25, 2013 9:47 PM