Synthstuff - music, photography and more...

Not as bad as initially thought - Typhoon Haiyan

This is a very major storm and there has been awful damage and about 1,200 people dead or unaccounted for. That being said, a lot of people are looking at Haiyan's intensity as proof positive of Anthropogenic Global Warming, saying that this was the most intense storm ever recorded. A look at the current facts and the historical record are in order. From Anthony Watts and Paul Homewood at Watts Up With That:

Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda � another overhyped storm that didn�t match early reports
Here is the sort of headlines we had Friday, for example this one from Huffington Post where they got all excited about some early reports from Andrew Freedman:

Super Typhoon Haiyan Could Be One Of The Strongest Storms In World History
Super Typhoon Haiyan � which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed � is about to plow through the Central Philippines, producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. As of Thursday afternoon Eastern time, Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda, had estimated maximum sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph, which puts the storm in extraordinarily rare territory.

Ah those estimates, they sure don�t always meet up with reality later � Anthony

More from Paul:

Sadly it appears that at least 1000 1200 lives have been lost in Typhoon Yolanda (or Haiyan), that has just hit the Philippines. There appear to have been many unsubstantiated claims about its size, though these now appear to start being replaced by accurate information.

Nevertheless the BBC are still reporting today:

Typhoon Haiyan � one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall�� The storm made landfall shortly before dawn on Friday, bringing gusts that reached 379km/h (235 mph).

Unfortunately we cannot always trust the BBC to give the facts these days, so let�s see what the Philippine Met Agency, PAGASA, have to say. Here are the surface wind reports:







http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wbfcst.html

So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts up to 275 kmh or 171 mph. This is 60 mph less than the BBC have quoted.

The maximum strength reached by the typhoon appears to have been around landfall, as the reported windspeeds three hours earlier were 225 kmh (140mph).

Terrible though this storm was, it only ranks as a Category 4 storm, and it is clear nonsense to suggest that it is �one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall�

Paul then looks back at the historical record of 1964 and 1965 when there were no less than eight super-typhoons of Category Five strength. Paul also points to news articles where people confuse Kilometers/Hour with Miles/Hour -- 1mph = 1.6kph Yes, a great tragedy but not a 'superstorm' by a long shot. Again, donations can be made here: Philippine Red Cross Posted by DaveH at November 9, 2013 6:22 PM