The good side to high gas prices - fewer fatalities
Curious bit of statistical analysis here. From
Yahoo/Associated Press:
Study: As gas prices go up, auto deaths drop
High gas prices could turn out to be a lifesaver for some drivers. The authors of a new study say gas prices are causing driving declines that could result in a third fewer auto deaths annually, with the most dramatic drop likely to be among teen drivers.
Professors Michael Morrisey of the University of Alabama at Birmingham and David Grabowski of Harvard Medical School said they found that for every 10 percent increase in gas prices there was a 2.3 percent decline in auto deaths. For drivers ages 15 to 17, the decline was 6 percent, and for ages 18 to 21, it was 3.2 percent.
Their study looked at fatalities from 1985 to 2006, when gas prices reached about $2.50 a gallon. With gas now averaging more than $4 a gallon, Morrisey said he expects to see much greater drop � about 1,000 deaths a month.
With annual auto deaths typically ranging from about 38,000 to 40,000 a year, a drop of 12,000 deaths would cut the total by nearly a third, Morrisey said in an interview with The Associated Press.
"I think there is some silver lining here in higher gas prices in that we will see a public health gain," Grabowski said. But he cautioned that their estimate of a decline of 1,000 deaths a month could be offset somewhat by the shift under way to smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars and the increase in motorcycle and scooter driving.
Not that I am asking for gas prices to continue rising -- the US's energy policy is clearly flawed and needs a dramatic makeover. We need a minimum of 80% nuclear for baseload electrical generation, stop using coal for electrical generation -- use natural gas instead, invest heavily in coal to oil conversion plants for vehicle fuel and use the surplus energy to bootstrap the development of real alternative fuels, not ethanol -- ethanol is a horribly expensive joke, even worse in that the people who can least afford its costs are the ones that bear the burden through higher food costs...
Posted by DaveH at July 14, 2008 10:30 PM